by Troy Closson
New York Times
August 24, 2021

Shootings are still well above prepandemic levels. But this summer has been considerably less violent than last.

… the latest grim evidence of a yearlong wave of gun violence that has confronted the city. But amid the drumbeat of reports of shootings, experts who study the issue say that recent gun violence data has shown a downward trend.

… Experts caution that it can take years to learn why crime statistics change, and warn against comparing crime figures in one year with the previous year — and that is particularly true during the pandemic’s upheaval and frequent waves of change. But many have taken note of the swing.

Jeffrey Butts, the director of the research and evaluation center at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, has been conducting analyses of quarterly shooting totals, comparing three-month periods between 2020 and 2021. The spike has appeared to be tapering off, even if gradually, across the past several times he has run the numbers, he said.

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