Minor Role IV: Violent Crime More of an Adult Problem Today

Arrests for serious and violent crimes generally declined nationwide since the 1990s, and rates dropped sharply when the social and economic disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in 2020. Arrests then surged in 2021 and 2022 before beginning to fall once again in 2023 and 2024. All age groups display these fluctuations to some degree, but youth under age 18 actually lead the crime decline. Continue reading Minor Role IV: Violent Crime More of an Adult Problem Today

Minor Role III: Youth Under Age 18 and New York City Violence

If recent changes in crime were due to changes in the legal handling of youth under 18, marked age-specific patterns would be observable. Such effects are not found in arrest data from New York City. Thus, it does not appear to be accurate to attribute recent increases in violent crime to the State law known as “Raise the Age.” Continue reading Minor Role III: Youth Under Age 18 and New York City Violence

Good Stories are not Enough

Looking through old files… I just found the notes I used for a presentation I did at a national conference on youth policy organized by the Center for the Study of Social Policy. In November 2019! Just before the whole world changed due to the pandemic and the crime surge that followed. Now, as I watch some states trying to undo good youth justice policies, maybe I should say: Told Ya So! Continue reading Good Stories are not Enough