Briefs, toptag

Minor Role III: Youth Under Age 18 and New York City Violence

by Jeffrey A. Butts and Gina Moreno
January 31, 2025

Using data provided by the New York City Police Department, researchers examined trends in the number of people arrested for three violent offenses in New York City between 2006 and 2024.

  • Felony assault involves charges of assault in the first and second degree as well as strangulation in the first degree (see NY Penal Law Article 120 & Article 121).
  • Felony dangerous weapon includes charges for firearms or other weapons (see NY Penal Law Article 265).
  • Felony robbery includes charges for forcible theft of property that involves the use of physical force (see NY Penal Law Article 160).

Public officials sometimes express concerns about violent crime trends among youth under age 18 since New York State implemented the “Raise the Age” law that returned many youth to family court jurisdiction. As of 2019, the law eliminated default prosecution in adult criminal court for people under age 18.

Researchers looked for the effect of recent changes in law by examining violent crime arrests for three groups of people: those age 17 and younger, those aged 18 to 24, and adults age 25 and older. Arrest trends among people under age 18 generally mirror the scale and direction of trends among adults age 18 and older.

Arrests surged between 2020 and 2024 as the social and economic disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, and all age groups showed the increase. However, the patterns of change were not consistent with a youth-specific increase that would be due to changes in criminal law and prosecutorial practice.

Limited exceptions include small changes in weapon offenses and the age distribution of robbery arrests. Youth arrests for robbery declined at first, but then increased enough to account for a larger share of the total. Youth arrests in 2024 accounted for the same proportion as those involving 18-24 year-olds (22%). However, the two proportions had also been similar in prior years (e.g., 2011 to 2019).

If recent changes in crime were due to changes in the legal handling of youth under 18, marked age-specific patterns would be observable. Such effects are not found in arrest data from New York City. Thus, it does not appear to be accurate to attribute recent increases in violent crime to the State law known as “Raise the Age.”

Note: A previous iteration of this report estimated 2024 arrests with data from the first two quarters of the year and weighting them to represent the expected yearly total. This version uses complete 2024 data as provided by NYPD.

Data Source: Data are provided by the New York City Police Department on the City’s Open Data portal, then inspected and analyzed by the Research and Evaluation Center.

Note: Percentages in the table may not add to 100 due to rounding. Percentages were calculated after excluding cases with missing age. 

Citation: Butts, Jeffrey A. and Gina Moreno (2025). Minor Role III: Youth Under Age 18 and New York City Violence. [JohnJayREC DataBit 2025-1]. New York, NY: Research and Evaluation Center, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York.

Previous Reports:
Minor Role (2023)
Minor Role II (2024)